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Jack Fisher’s Predictions/Picks For The 2019 NFL Season

NFL Combine Football

It’s that wonderful, exciting, beer-soaked time of year again. A new NFL season is upon us. Football fans, like myself, have followed news, leaks, and rumors from the start of free agency to the NFL draft to the preseason. It’s all been building towards this.

We’ve all been anxiously waiting to see if our team has done enough to become a contender. There have been all sorts of bold predictions, rampant speculation, heavy hype, and even a little doom-saying. Some major stories about certain players have already thrown things into chaos. More chaos is sure to come as the season progresses. That’s part of what makes the NFL one of the best spectacles in all of sports.

Last year, I made my share of predictions. Again, I was dead wrong. I grossly overestimated how the Pittsburgh Steelers would navigate the chaos that is Le’Veon Bell and how much Kirk Cousins would underachieve after signing his historic free agency contract. This year, I’m sure I’ll make predictions that are every bit as off.

That’s another part of what makes the NFL season such entertaining. It really is unpredictable. You never know what team will go from worst to first. You never know what team will collapse. You never know when a bullshit call by the refs will cost a team a trip to the Super Bowl. You really can’t know until the games are played and it all starts tonight with the kickoff of the 2019 NFL season.

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I am ready for some football! Just as I’ve done the previous two years, I’m going to make my picks and predictions for division winners and Super Bowl contenders this season. Most of them will likely be wrong, but that’s exactly why I’ll be locked in to watch for the next several months. It’s sure to be a wild ride.


AFC East

Once again, the AFC east is the most lopsided division in the NFL. You don’t need to be a psychic to know how this one will play out. For the past two decades, the New England Patriots have dominated this division as though it were a bunch of tune-up games. I don’t see that changing this season.

The fact remains that Tom Brady has six Super Bowl rings. The New England Patriots have won this division almost every year since 2001. The only time they lost it in 2008 was when Brady was out with a knee injury. Unless he’s injured or retires, he and the Patriots will breeze through the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins.

All three of those teams are in a rebuilding phase. The only team that stands a sliver of a chance is the Jets, who have put together a decent team with Sam Darnold as their quarterback. However, neither he nor anyone else in that division is close to dethroning the Patriots. Until Brady and Belichick retire, that will not change.

Winner: New England Patriots


AFC North

Unlike the AFC East, this division has become less and less predictable with each passing season. Not long ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the most loaded team in the division. Their presence in the playoffs was almost a given. It was just a matter of them not underachieving at the worst possible time, which tended to happen.

Now, even with Ben Roethlisberger still playing at a high level, the Steelers have been losing ground to the Baltimore Ravens and the emerging Cleveland Browns. Last year, the Ravens really surprised everyone with how Lamar Jackson fared against top defenses. While I suspect opposing defenses will catch up with him, the team around him has what it takes to keep the Ravens competitive.

While I know the Browns have become a hot pick this season, thanks largely to some big time trades, they haven’t proved they’re capable of taking that next step. At the very least, they’ll keep the Steelers and the Ravens from running away with the division. They may even get into the playoffs as a wild card team. For now, though, I think the Ravens have the most balanced team and they’ll repeat this year.

Winner: Baltimore Ravens


AFC South

A few weeks ago, I thought I had a pretty good idea of how this division was going to play out. Then, Andrew Luck retired in the middle of the preseason at age 29. While I can’t necessarily blame him, given all the injuries he endured, his retirement caught the Indianapolis Colts off-guard and the entire AFC South, for that matter.

This division has become a lot more competitive in recent years. Both the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars made sure that Luck’s run with the Colts was painful. His absence can only help them. While Colts do have some play-makers outside of Luck, I don’t see them as being enough to compete this year.

Instead, I think this division might end up being the most dramatic, thanks to the arrival of Nick Foles in Jacksonville. While the Texans have big names like J. J. Watt, the Jaguars have a more complete team, overall. Poor quarterback play by Blake Bortles was the only reason they came up short last year and Nick Foles is a huge upgrade over Bortles.

Let’s not forget that Foles has one thing that no other quarterback in the AFC South has, including Andrew Luck, and that’s a Super Bowl ring. This is the guy who beat Tom Brady in a shootout. He brought Philadelphia a championship. I think he’ll get the Jaguars into the playoffs and he may even do some damage.

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars


AFC West

Last year might have marked the beginning of a new era in the AFC. The season that Patrick Mahomes had last year was nothing short of gaudy. He established the Kansas City Chiefs as an offensive powerhouse and took his team to within a few minutes of the Super Bowl. He even managed to do this during a season when Phillip Rivers had one of his best years with the Los Angeles Chargers.

I see no reason why Mahomes and the Chiefs can’t be contenders again in 2019. However, I’ve been watching football long enough to know that any team can get hot one year and fall flat the next. While I don’t see the Chiefs collapsing, I also can’t see them being as dominant as they were last year.

At the same time, I don’t see any other team in their division elevating their game enough to challenge the Chiefs. The Broncos might give them some issues with Joe Flacco, a former Super Bowl MVP, as their quarterback, but I have a feeling that Mahomes will come back down to Earth this season.

That said, I think the Chiefs have enough firepower and depth to repeat. The Raiders, Broncos, and Chargers will keep it closer this year, but not enough to get past Kansas City.

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs


NFC East

This is one of those divisions that I find frustrating because no team ever seems to sustain their success, once they get it. There hasn’t been a team to repeat as division champs since the early 2000s and I don’t see that changing this year. Between contract disputes with the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles losing their former Super Bowl MVP to free agency, I’m genuinely perplexed by the NFC East this year.

That said, this division did get somewhat simpler over the offseason. Eli Manning, despite his two Super Bowl rings, keeps showing his age. The Washington Redskins lost the quarterback who was supposed to keep the team stable for the next several seasons. As a result, the NFC East is basically a two-horse race, but both horses have some open wounds.

The Eagles and the Cowboys have playoff-caliber teams. The Cowboys have been more stable, but they haven’t done much in the playoffs. They also let the drama with Ezekiel Elliot get way out of hand. I can see both teams going back to the playoffs this year, but I think the Eagles have more going for them.

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles


NFC North

This is another confusing division, but for much better reasons. This division has steadily gotten more competitive over the past several years. It was once dominated by the Green Bay Packers and their all-pro quarterback/State Farm spokesman, Aaron Rogers. For the past couple years, however, the Packers underachieved while the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions only got better.

This year could be one of the most competitive to date, for this division. You could make an argument for all four teams winning the division. You could even make an argument for them being contenders in the NFC Championship game. They all have quarterbacks that can play at a pro-bowl level and defenses that can make a difference in any given game.

I’m tempted to go with the only quarterback who has won a Super Bowl. However, with a new coach taking over and no play-makers on defense, I can’t pick the Packers to do much this year. I’m also tempted to pick the Vikings again, but until Kirk Cousins stops choking in big games, I’m going to have to go with the growing success of Chicago. They may not compete for a Super Bowl, but they will start to establish themselves this year.

Winner: Chicago Bears


NFC South

Let me make one thing clear before I break down this division. The New Orleans Saints were robbed last year. They should’ve been the team playing the Patriots in Super Bowl LIII. That bullshit no-call in the 2018 NFC Championship Game was one of the worst calls in NFL history.

That said, I think the New Orleans Saints are going to make up for that gaff this year. Drew Brees is a Hall of Fame quarterback. That much is beyond dispute. He’s got a great team around him, but the Saints have suffered two heartbreaking playoff losses in two years. At some point, that starts to wear on a team. Just ask the Buffalo Bills.

I also think the Saints benefited from a weak division in 2018, which was marred by injuries and a version of Cam Newton that was not at full strength. They won’t have those benefits in 2019. They’ll still be the team to beat. They’ll still probably make the playoffs, but I think the Falcons did enough in the offseason to bolster their team.

I know the Falcons may not have gotten over their epic collapse in Super Bowl LI, but they still have an elite quarterback in Matt Ryan and play-makers on offense that are finally healthy. That will be what tips the balance in their favor.

Winner: Atlanta Falcons


NFC West

Let me make another thing clear before I break down this division, as well. The Los Angeles Rams did not deserve to be in Super Bowl LIII, but they are still a team that can contend for a Super Bowl in 2019. They have a defense littered with Pro Bowlers and depth. They have an offense that is more balanced than almost any other team in the NFL. They can get back to the Super Bowl and they can win it.

It helps that their division is relatively weak. Other than the Seattle Seahawks, they really don’t have much in terms of obstacles. The San Francisco 49ers have a quarterback coming off a major knee injury and the Arizona Cardinals have a new coach and a new quarterback who haven’t yet learned how to win in the NFL. Their path to Super Bowl LIV is easier than most.

I admit I was among those who were very skeptical of the Rams. I thought they were just overachieving for a year or so. However, they’ve convinced me that they have what it takes to compete at a high level consistently. Their team, as well as their baby-faced coach, are young and hungry. I think they’ll take the division again. I just don’t think they can keep relying on the refs to hand them the game.

Winner: Los Angeles Rams


Super Bowl LIV Prediction

This year might be one of the least predictable years for the NFL in the past decade. We’re going into a season that has has no overly dominant team. There are a few with weak schedules and weak divisions, but that will only get you into the playoffs. It won’t carry you to a Super Bowl.

Given these uncertainties, I still have a gut feeling as to who will make it to the big game on February 2, 2020 in Miami. My gut feeling is usually wrong when it comes to sports, but right now, it’s telling me that the two teams that will face off on that day will be the Atlanta Falcons and the Kansas City Chiefs.

These are two teams with immense talent at the quarterback position. Both Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes are among the NFL’s elite in terms of stats and leadership. They also have defensive talent on each team that can give them an edge once they get into the playoffs.

It’ll be a close game. One is an up-and-coming star. The other is a veteran hungry to avenge a previous Super Bowl loss. It could easily become an offensive shootout. In that battle, I think the Atlanta Falcons will make just enough plays to get the victory and become Super Bowl champs in 2019.

Super Bowl LIV Final Score: Atlanta Falcons 35, Kansas City Chiefs 31


As I’ve noted before, I tend to be very wrong about predictions this early in the season. Pretty much everyone is wrong at this point. That’s what makes this time of year so exciting. With kickoff slated for later tonight, I am ready! The path to Super Bowl LIV begins now.

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Jack Fisher’s Predictions/Picks For The 2018 NFL Season

NFL Combine Football

It’s finally that time of year when we can definitively answer the question that Hank William Jr. loves asking so loudly.

Are you ready for some football?

Yes, Mr. Williams. Yes, I am. I know football has not exactly been a squeaky-clean enterprise lately. I’m well-aware of the long list of bad press it has generated over the past year and before it. I don’t doubt that there will be plenty of controversies to come, some more egregious than others.

For now, though, I want to set aside all the outrage, grand-standing, and whining for a moment and focus on real, actual football. Last year, I made a series of predictions and picks for how I thought the 2017 season would play out. I was dead wrong. I had the Panthers and the Steelers in the Super Bowl. One didn’t make the playoffs and the other got knocked out in the second round.

I’m not an expert, nor am I psychic. I freely admit that. However, I am a die-hard football fan who follows multiple teams, right down to which knee-ligament they injure. As such, I’m going to share my gut predictions for how the 2018 season will pan out, minus the inevitable controversies.

Like last year, I can only assume so much before the first game. Injuries, front office shake-ups, and player suspensions are likely to upend any predictions. For now, though, here are my picks for the division winners and the outcome of Super Bowl LIII.


AFC East

Once again, this is the easiest division to pick in football. It has been for nearly two decades now. It’s not just that the Patriots are that good with Bill Belichick as a coach and Tom Brady as a quarterback. Every other team in the division just keeps finding ways to fall behind.

The Buffalo Bills ended a 17-year playoff drought last year, only to ditch their starting quarterback, Tyrod Taylor. The Miami Dolphins thought they could win with Jay Cutler and the less said about the New York Jets’ struggles to replace Joe Namath, the better. I’m not saying that it’s impossible for these three teams to overachieve this year. I’m just saying they have a lot working against them.

As long as Tom Brady stays healthy, the Patriots should win their division with ease. The Dolphins are the only wild card, but that depends on Ryan Tannehill’s ability to recover from a torn ACL and an offense that traded away its best receiver to Cleveland. The Patriots dynasty will end at some point, as all dynasties do. It just won’t be this year.

Winner: New England Patriots


AFC North

This is another easy division to pick, but one that might not be as easy as usual. As of now, the Pittsburg Steelers are the most complete team. They have the best receiver in football in Antonio Brown. They have a two-time Super Bowl winner in Ben Roethlisberger. They have an all-pro running back in Le’Veon Bell. They have what it takes to win the division and make a run at the Super Bowl.

As good as the Steelers are, though, their age is showing. Roethlisberger has a lengthy injury history and Bell seems to be getting impatient with wanting a long-term deal. Every other team in the division is catching up to them, including the Cleveland Browns. However, until the Browns can prove they can win at least one game, they’re a long way from competing.

Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals have improved. The Ravens are getting Joe Flacco back healthy and they’ve gained a few offensive weapons. Unlike previous years, the Steelers will not run away with this division early. They’ll have to fight for it, going into December.

Even with the improvement of their rivals, though, I think it’s still the Steelers’ division to lose. Roethlisberger understands his window for another Super Bowl is closing. The team got blind-sided last year by the Jaguars and they’re going to make a hard push for one last run before their core starts to fracture.

Winner: Pittsburg Steelers


AFC South

Unlike the previous two divisions, this one might be the most competitive division in football. You could easily make a case for any one of these teams winning the division and not seem crazy. This division was one of the tightest in the league last year and it’s going to be even tighter this year.

In the end, though, I believe the Indianapolis Colts will come out on top. I know that assumes a lot about Andrew Luck’s health. He hasn’t played in a regular season game since 2015 because of a shoulder injury. However, I believe that just means he’ll be well-rested and able to re-establish the Colts as a force to be reckoned with in the AFC.

It won’t be easy. Both the Huston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars will fight them for the division. While I think the Texans will get a boost with the development of Deshaun Watson, I don’t think he’s ready to overtake Luck. It’s easy to forget that just a few years ago, Luck took a scrappy Colts team to the AFC championship. The team he has around him is much better and I think that’ll be the deciding factor.

Again, this could come down to the last week of the season. This division may end up producing two wild card teams. At the moment, though, I believe Luck’s return will be the deciding factor.

Winner: Indianapolis Colts


AFC West

This is a tough division to predict. It’s one of those divisions that doesn’t have a really dominant team, but it doesn’t have any really bad teams either. All four of them have talent on both sides of the ball. All four could get hot at just the right time and make the playoffs. For the moment, I think the Oakland Raiders have the best chance.

That’s not just because of the return of Jon Gruden as their coach. I believe they have a solid core with Derek Carr as their quarterback and Khalil Mack as their top defensive player. Yes, I know Mack is in the middle of a contract hold-out. I don’t believe that’s going to last too deep into the season. This team has too much going for it.

I know the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos have top-tier defenses, but I don’t think that will be enough to carry them through. Patrick Mahomes and Case Keenum just aren’t going to provide enough balance. I believe Philip Rivers could certainly carry the Los Angeles Chargers to the division if the team gets hot, but that whole team is in flux right now. I don’t see it having enough to overtake Oakland this year.

Winner: Oakland Raiders


NFC East

This is probably my most ambitious pick. I know the New York Giants finished dead last in the division last year, which led to the end of Eli Manning’s consecutive start streak and the end of Ben McAdoo’s tenure as coach. However, this division is almost always in flux and I think the time has come for the Giants to reclaim it.

The Philadelphia Eagles may be the defending Super Bowl champs, but I also see them taking a step back. I’ve seen a pretty sloppy team throughout preseason. Carson Wentz is still recovering from a torn ACL and Nick Foles has not shown that he can carry over his astonishing playoff performance that led the team to their first Super Bowl. The team will still be good, but it won’t repeat.

The NFC East, historically, has not let teams repeat. It’s just too competitive and the teams around the Eagles are too hungry to let them do it again. The Washington Redskins keep stocking up on defensive talent and the Dallas Cowboys, despite losing Dez Bryant, still have playmakers on both sides of the ball.

What will carry the Giants beyond them, though, is their investment in Saquon Barkley, their fourth overall pick in this year’s draft. He is, by far, the best running back the Giants have had since Tiki Barber. He will provide the Giants offense with the kind of balanced attack that helped propel it to two Super Bowl victories.

I believe the Giants of 2018 will use the same script as the Cowboys of 2016, following a rookie running back into the playoffs. While I don’t think they’ll go all the way, I believe they have the tools they need to overcome their rivals, at least for this year.

Winner: New York Giants


NFC South

This is another division that always seems to be in flux. Every year seems to birth a dominant team. It was the Carolina Panthers in 2015. It was the Atlanta Falcons in 2016. It was the New Orleans Saints in 2017, thanks to two rookie running backs that carried their offense. This year, though, I believe the Falcons will once again rise to the top.

Beyond the fat new contract they just gave Matt Ryan, I believe the Falcons have a good blend of defensive talent to go along with offensive weapons that include the likes of Julio Jones. Last year, they kept things close and managed to make it into the playoffs as a wild card team. They just didn’t make enough plays when it mattered.

I believe they’ll fight a little harder this year after seeing the Eagles upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I also believe that the Saints, Panthers, and Buccaneers did not do enough to improve in the offseason. I can see one of those teams making it as a wild card team, but I think the Falcons will eventually pull away with the division.

Winner: Atlanta Falcons


NFC West

This might be an unpopular pick, especially after the Los Angeles Rams surprised everybody last year with their record. Plus, most saw how hot the San Francisco 49ers got at the end of last year and think Jimmy Garoppolo is the second coming of Joe Montana. I believe both those teams can make a case for winning the division this year, but I’m still going with the team that has a Super Bowl ring in this decade.

The Seahawks really faltered last year and they’ve steadily lost the core that won the Super Bowl in 2013. However, they still have Russell Wilson, who had to single-handedly win games last year. They also have the most stable coaching staff with Pete Carroll and a fresh crop of defensive talent to build on.

They’re not going to be as dominant as they were in previous years, but I think they have what it takes to reign in the Rams and 49ers. Both of those teams are on the rise, but they still have a way to go before they can be true contenders. It’s hard to say whether the Arizona Cardinals will be in the mix with journeyman Sam Bradford as their quarterback. In a division like this, though, stability counts for something.

At the moment, the Seahawks are the most stable, consistent team in the division. They’re losing ground to the 49ers and Rams, but so long as they can avoid the flood of injuries they had last year, I think they’ll still come out on top.

Winner: Seattle Seahawks


NFC North

This could very well be the most exciting division in all of football. This division, alone, will help make the 2018 NFL season worth watching. Each team has a capable quarterback. Each team has playmakers on both sides of the ball. Each team is hungry for a Super Bowl. This is one of those divisions that will make for the most drama that doesn’t involve Colin Kaepernick.

The Chicago Bears surprised me last year with how well Mitch Trubisky played. The Detroit Lions surprised me by how competitive they were in so many games. Even the Green Bay Packers surprised me with how well they played in the absence of Aaron Rogers. None, however, were as surprising as the Minnesota Vikings and not just because of that last-second miracle play against the Saints in the NFC Divisional round.

The Vikings accomplished that feat with Case Keenum, who is now in Denver. Since then, they landed the biggest offseason prize in recent memory with Kirk Cousins. Seeing the numbers he put up with the Redskins behind mediocre talent at best and the Vikings are officially poised for a Super Bowl run.

I can still see either the Packers or the Lions overtaking them. I can even see the Bears over-achieving at some point. However, in terms of talent and depth, the Vikings are the most complete team. I believe they’ll eventually win the division. It’ll come down to the final week of the season, but their depth and talent levels are just too great at this point.

Winner: Minnesota Vikings


Super Bowl LIII Predictions

I’m not going to speculate on how the playoff seating or wild card teams will shape up. Those kinds of specifics are just pit stops on the way to the Super Bowl, which is the goal for all 32 teams last I checked. When all is said and done, there can be only two teams on Super Bowl Sunday and I believe those teams will be the Steelers and the Vikings.

I believe the Steelers are poised for a run. That devastating loss against the Jaguars last year hurt, but that’ll only motivate them even more this year. They were just a few plays short in 2017 and I believe they’ll make those plays in 2018. I also believe the Vikings will make enough to finally get to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1976.

Both teams have a solid balance of offense and defense. Both teams have quality quarterbacks with a solid group of playmakers. I think the Vikings are better defensively while the Steelers are better offensively. On paper, both teams are as evenly matched as you can get.

In the end, I predict that the Steelers will inch out am overdue Super Bowl victory. They have too much experience with Roethlisberger and too much talent with Antonio Brown. I believe that’ll be just enough to carry them past the Vikings in a close, but decisive game.

Super Bowl LIII Final Score: Pittsburg Steelers 28, Minnesota Vikings 27


There you have it! Those are my predictions for the 2018 NFL seasons. They’re probably dead wrong, but that’s what makes football so much fun. You can be wrong and still enjoy the game.

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Defending The NFL In A No-Win Situations

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Are you excited for the start of the 2018 NFL season? Actually, let me add a caveat to that question. Are you excited for the 2018 NFL season despite all the recent controversy? That’s probably the more relevant question these days, albeit for all the wrong reasons.

Let’s face it. These days, nobody seems to be talking about whether Tom Brady’s age will finally catch up with him or whether the Cleveland Browns will actually win a game after their historically bad season last year. Instead, anytime football or the NFL is mentioned, it’s usually in the context of a major controversy or social outrage.

First, it was the NFL’s weak stance on domestic violence after the Ray Rice situation.

Then, it was the NFL’s policy on the nation anthem in wake of Colin Kaepernick’s kneeling protest and the subsequent clash with the President that followed.

Then, it was the NFL’s declining ratings and the various reasons why.

Then, it was the NFL’s handling of multiple scandals involving the treatment of its cheerleaders.

Then, it was the NFL’s implementation of rule changes that many are saying will destroy the game.

In the midst of all of these controversies/scandals, the NFL is also dealing with an emerging health crisis involving player safety. Concerns about concussions and serious injuries, like the one Ryan Shazier suffered, are doing more than just making football look dangerous. It’s creating a cultural divide, of sorts, where people are distancing themselves from the sport and the violence it requires to play.

In this web of convoluted circumstances, the NFL rarely comes off as looking good. In fact, some are going so far as to put the NFL on the same level as the tobacco companies as an organization that willingly sells a dangerous product. At that point, the NFL comes off as less a professional sports league and more an evil corporation.

Now, here’s the part where I’m sure I’ll upset plenty of people, but that’s kind of the underlying point here. That’s because I’m about to defend the NFL. I’m also going to defend NFL Commissioner, Roger Goodell, to some extent. I know that’s akin to saying nice things about Monsanto these days, but I’m willing to take that chance.

I do this as someone who loves football and is genuinely excited about the upcoming NFL season. At the same time, I’m not blind to all the controversies and outrage the NFL has generated over the past few years. However, I feel it’s necessary to put things into a proper context.

First and foremost, it’s important to understand that the NFL, Roger Goodell, and everyone involved in the infrastructure of football are in the ultimate no-win situation. Take a moment to think about the decisions they’ve had to make over the past few years.

If they chose to discipline Colin Kaepernick for his anthem protest, they would’ve upset a huge contingent of people who supported his message. By doing what they did, they still upset a huge contingent of fans who did not agree with him.

If they chose not to implement the recent rule changes, then they would be criticized for undermining player safety. By doing what they did, they’ve been accused of undermining the game.

When it comes to ratings decline, any side can take credit and cast all the blame on the NFL and Roger Goodell. Those on the conservative side will take credit for lower ratings over the anthem protests. Those on the liberal side will take credit because of concerns about concussions and violence. Never mind the fact that the ratings decline coincided with an overall trend in TV viewing. It’s still all the NFL and Roger Goodell’s fault.

Even when they come out and apologize for a mistake, nobody even accepts it. After the debacle surrounding the Ray Rice incident, Roger Goodell came out and issued an apology. These are his exact words:

“At times, however, and despite our best efforts, we fall short of our goals. We clearly did so in response to a recent incident of domestic violence. We allowed our standards to fall below where they should be and lost an important opportunity to emphasize our strong stance on a critical issue and the effective programs we have in place. My disciplinary decision led the public to question our sincerity, our commitment, and whether we understood the toll that domestic violence inflicts on so many families. I take responsibility both for the decision and for ensuring that our actions in the future properly reflect our values. I didn’t get it right. Simply put, we have to do better. And we will.”

Break that down and imagine anyone else saying it. How rare is it these days to hear any public figure admit they got something wrong? It still didn’t matter, though. People just didn’t buy it, claiming Goodell was just saying what he needed to say to stop the outrage.

That may have been true to some degree, since he is the face of a very popular, very profitable organization. However, by assuming that he and the NFL are completely insincere, it creates a no-win situation. For any person or company, especially one built on the win/lose nature of sports, that’s an impossible standard.

Honestly, and I’m being sincere about this, what could the NFL possibly do to placate everyone at this point? They’re not a government, an army, or your best friend. They’re a professional sports league. Yes, they’re the most popular and profitable sports league in the United States, but they’re still limited to what they are.

Is it really reasonable to expect the NFL to be on the front lines of serious issues like domestic violence, police brutality, and what constitutes patriotism? Again, they’re a professional sports league. They can only control the rules, regulations, and business of their sport.

In that sense, it’s reasonable to expect them to make the game safer. That’s exactly what the new rule that so many says will destroy football is intended to do. Considering that college football already has that rule, it’s not like these changes to the game are unprecedented.

This isn’t even the first time significant rule changes have been bemoaned in the NFL. There was a time when a simple rule change involving how defensive players could operate was going to ruin the game and destroy the league. That time was in 1978 and football only went onto become more popular after that.

Even if injuries are a reasonable concern, do those caused by football warrant more scrutiny than other sports? Statistically speaking, skiing is much more dangerous in terms of actually killing people. In terms of injury and head trauma, boxing has a much higher risk. Why aren’t there any ongoing efforts to condemn those sports for their violence and physical harm?

Some of that has to do with the NFL being so big. Mark Cuban, who owns the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, once said “Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.” He’s half right in that the size and influence of an organization can make it an easy target. The NFL is just so visible compared to other leagues. Anything that happens to it is bound to gain attention, both the good and bad kind.

The problem is the bad tends to be a lot louder in the era of social media and outrage culture. That further raises the impossible standards even higher because it means those dissatisfied with the NFL’s decision, no matter how much a minority they are, will still make plenty of noise and generate plenty of headlines.

Is that a fair standard for a professional sports league? Is that a fair standard for anyone? If the NFL can’t meet those standards, then what incentive do they have to even try? Why should they be responsible for player safety or social issues if people are just going to be upset with them regardless of what they do?

At the end of the day, the NFL is a business. They still want to make money entertaining people with their sport. They have plenty of incentive to protect their players. New advances in helmets and pads will make the game safer. Advances in medicine are already mitigating the effects of concussions. It’s not going to happen all at once, but if anyone has the resources and clout to make it happen, it’s the NFL.

Now, none of this is to imply that the NFL or Roger Goodell don’t deserve criticism. They certainly do. Up until 2015, the NFL was a tax-exempt organization. It’s history of overcharging fans and screwing over injured players is well-documented. They have their flaws. All people and organizations do.

That’s all the more reason to hold the NFL to a reasonable standard with reasonable expectations. They’re still going to screw up every now and then, but that’s also why we should make an effort to accept their apologies. That’s also why we shouldn’t panic every time there’s a rule change.

The NFL, like all sports leagues, is evolving. The latest rule changes aren’t going to destroy the game. Football is still going to be popular because it’s an entertaining game. People are going to gravitate towards fun and entertaining things, despite or even because of their concerns.

At the end of the day, football is a sport and the NFL is a professional sports league. They want to entertain us. We want to be entertained. Why complicate that with impossible standards and no-win situations?

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Second Chances, Learning From Past Mistakes, And The Return Of The XFL

America likes to claim that it’s the land of second chances. People, in general, are often willing to grant second chances to those who have made mistakes, failed, or were just the victim of bad luck. Some end up needing more than second chances, but we’re willing to give them to those who prove they have a vision.

We do it in our personal lives as well, giving second chances to those we love. Sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn’t. However, the first step, and arguably the most important, is giving that chance to someone, even when you haven’t forgotten the extent of their mistake.

That brings me to the XFL. I’m sorry, but there’s just no way to effectively transition to this topic. I know the title alone sounded like a jumbled compilation of random thoughts from someone who talks about everything from sex robots to superhero movies. I promise I’m going somewhere with this. I also promise it’s both relevant and applicable.

To those who haven’t heard the big news, the XFL is back. A full 17 years after this eccentric, over-the-top league that inspired the likes of “He Hate Me” and glorified brutal hits is making a comeback. Vince McMahon, the colorful personality who turned wrestling into a billion-dollar entertainment juggernaut, is taking another shot at creating a new football league to compete with the towering Goliath that is the NFL.

As a self-professed football fan whose picks for this past season were dead wrong, I’m genuinely intrigued by this news. I won’t let myself get too excited about it just yet, given how badly the XFL failed the first time, but I am willing to give it my attention, as well as a second chance.

The story of the first incarnation of the XFL is an amazing story. The fact that it also involves exceedingly sexy cheerleaders doesn’t hurt it’s appeal either. Just last year, ESPN did a documentary on that story called “30 For 30: This Was The XFL.” If you want a comprehensive take on what happened to this over-the-top league, this I highly recommend you check this out.

By the end, you’ll appreciate why giving McMahon and the XFL a second chance is such a big deal. It may even give you a better appreciation of why second chances are so hard to give at times. In a sense, this second incarnation of the XFL may end up being a case study on the underlying merit of second chances or the lack thereof.

Whether it’s to a professional athlete, an ex-lover, or an employee, second chances are hard because our brains are wired to remember failures more vividly than successes. The whole notion of “once bitten, twice shy” has actual biology and evolutionary forces behind it. Failure in nature can sometimes mean failure to survive.

The last time the XFL failed, it cost both McMahon and NBC $35 million each. The greatly inflates the price of a second chance, to say the least. Why, in that context, should we still give it one?

Well, I can only speak for myself. I’m not a sports expert any more than I’m a brain surgeon. However, in the spirit of second chances and learning from past mistakes, there are a few I think are worth considering with both the XFL and life in general.


A Second Chance Can Prove You’ve Learned From Failure (And Are Able To Learn In General)

This is as valuable a skill in helping the new XFL succeed as it is for anyone who has ever screwed up in life, which covers pretty much everybody. This is probably the most important aspect of second chances. It gives an opportunity for someone to do more than just claim they’ve learned. Now, they can show it.

Say what you will about Vince McMahon and a lot has been said. He’s an entertainer and a businessman. He wants to make money and, if his net worth is any indication, he’s pretty damn good at it. You do not get that rich by never learning from your mistakes.

It’s hard to say for certain what McMahon will do differently at this point. However, if the content of his announcement is any indication, he’s very much aware of why the XFL failed the first time. He’s ready to take those hard, not to mention expensive, lessons and try again.

Given the breadth of McMahon’s success, he’s someone who can make more out of second chances than most. That’s why I’m going to give him this one, even if I find his persona annoying.


Second Chances Reveals Opportunities Otherwise Not Seen

It’s a common theme in business, romance, and everything in between. Both failure and success create opportunities. The failure of “Batman and Robin” paved the way for “Batman Begins.” The success of the iPhone paved the way for the booming smartphone business.

One failed relationship can also strengthen another. The many failures of other football leagues have only served to strengthen the dominance of the NFL. However, sometimes success can have pitfalls. The past few years have not been kind to the NFL, to say the least. Given the sheer size of this entertainment behemoth, it’s an easy target.

In that respect, the XFL’s timing couldn’t be better. It’s coming along at a time when fans are somewhat disillusioned with the NFL, but have little alternatives beyond the hopelessly corrupt NCAA. The XFL could finally give the NFL the kind of competition that is necessary for any product, service, or art to innovate.

Let’s face it. We humans are a competitive species. If someone is doing something better than us, be it football or underwater basket weaving, we want to match and exceed them. It drives us to be better. It helps make us better people.

Football needs that right now. The NFL needs that. The XFL has the perfect opportunity to achieve this. Combined with the lessons of their first failure, they have much more going for them now than they did in 2001.


Greater Risks Bring Greater Rewards (And Greater Lessons)

This is probably the most important aspect of second chances for both the XFL and for life, in general. Everything that’s worth doing, whether it’s creating a new football league or finding the love of your life, requires a certain degree of risk. Some aren’t willing to risk that much, but those who are have a chance to achieve much more.

I say this as someone who avoided taking major risks until much later in life. Looking back on how I carried myself in my youth, I regret not taking more risks. Hindsight has revealed that I missed out on some pretty big rewards, both material and personal. Sometimes, you really have to do what your brain says is insanely risky to get those kinds of rewards.

What Vince McMahon is doing qualifies as exceedingly risky. He’s putting up $100 million of his own money to make the second incarnation of the XFL happen. He’s also taking on an organization in the NFL with obscene levels of influence, both economically and culturally.

At the moment, most people probably think he’s crazy and bound to fail. Those people aren’t willing to take the risk, but none of them have a shot at the big reward that McMahon is seeking. Even if the chances of the XFL succeeding are less than one percent, it’s still greater than zero and that’s all the chance you need with a second chance.


A Second Chance Can Also Help Fix Broken Or Flawed Systems

This is the part of the new XFL that has me the most intrigued, as a football fan. That’s because, as it stands, the system for developing players for the NFL is basically a cartel wrapped in a monopoly. The NCAA is the cartel. The NFL is the monopoly. If you want to make a living playing football, these are the sole gatekeepers.

It’s a system with many flaws, which have been documented on more than one occasion. The problem is there’s no incentives to fix those flaws. Neither the NCAA nor the NFL have any pressure to do so. They wield total power over all things football and can be as unjust as they want.

The XFL can change that. They can shake up a system that does plenty to screw over college players and professionals if they fail to make it in the NFL. They can provide a new path, bring new ideas to the table, and take chances that a cartel and a monopoly don’t even think to take.

It wouldn’t be the first time a monopoly got broken up. In most peoples’ lives, they either avoid situations where someone has all the leverage or work to subvert it. We do that with the people we work with and the people we love. Again, it often requires that we take risks and chances. However, it only has to work once to affect change.


It’s still not clear just what the new XFL will bring to the table or if it will succeed. For now, it has many forces working against it. However, as both a football fan and someone who sees the merit of second chances, I’m willing to give it one.

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Jack Fisher’s Picks For The 2017 NFL Season

It’s almost here! It’s been seven long months for football fans. Sure, I’ve found ways to pass the time, talking about annoying millennials, surviving fascist governments, and all things Wonder Woman. In all that time, I often checked my calendar, counting down the days until the NFL season started again. Finally, I can stop counting.

I’ve made my love of football clear before and now, that love has returned. My heart and my loins are in overdrive with anticipation. I’m sorry if that gives some of you a disturbing mental picture, but I stand by it. I’m just that excited.

I know football has made the news for all the wrong reasons recently. Some are saying football is in decline. I’ve countered that sentiment in my own sexy way. For now, that debate can take a back seat because the first kickoff of the season has arrived and I’m ready to build my Sundays around football again.

Whether you’re a fan of football or just hate Tom Brady’s smug, perfectly chiseled face, it’s a big moment for sports here in America. I’m ready to embrace it like party at the Playboy Mansion.

As such, I’d like to do something I’ve never done on this blog before. I would like to take the same energy I use to write about sexier topics like orgasms and sleeping naked, channel it in a new way, and break down the upcoming NFL season. At the moment, every team is undefeated. Every team has a chance to make this year their year. Yes, that includes the Cleveland Browns too.

Before the first play can be run, I’m going to look at each NFL division, make a few predictions, and offer my take as to who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, Minnesota. I know people don’t always come here for sports talk, but I promise I’ll get back to talking about sexier topics. For now, here’s Jack Fisher’s official analysis for the 2017 NFL Season.


AFC East

This is probably the easiest division for anyone to break down. It has been for nearly two decades now. It’s basically Tom Brady vs. everyone else and Brady still has the advantage. Love him or hate him, he’s the best. Last year’s Super Bowl performance proved it. He has five Super Bowl rings, more than any other quarterback to ever play the game. That’s all you need to know about the AFC East.

That’s not to say the Patriots’ reign is safe. Tom Brady is 40 and the list of quarterbacks who dominate that age is exceedingly short. On top of that, he lost one of his best receivers, Julian Edelman, to a season-ending ACL injury. That came after one of their best defensive players, Rob Ninkovich, retired.

Even with these losses, though, the competition in their division is limited at best. Only the Miami Dolphins pose a meaningful threat and they now have to rely on Jay Cutler to get them back to the playoffs, despite his noticeable decline during his final years in Chicago.

While Miami has a balanced team, they’re still a work-in-progress while the Jets and the Bills are so lacking in talent that they would need to overachieve to a historic degree to threaten the Patriots. That is as unlikely as Ryan Leaf making a comeback, but stranger things have happened in the NFL.

Jack’s Pick: New England Patriots


AFC North

This is a division that has been in flux in recent years. After the Cincinnati Bengals won a few division titles, it looked like they were going to leapfrog over the Steelers and the Ravens, who have dominated the division for a decade. Then, the Bengals took a nose-dive last season, the Ravens got slammed by injuries, and the Browns were the worst team in football.

At the moment, the Steelers have the most firepower with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. That was enough to carry them to the AFC Championship game last year, but that run took a toll on Roethlisberger, whose lengthy injury history is starting to catch up with his toughness.

Their ability to make it back to the AFC Championship game depends primarily on how well the Ravens and Bengals rebound. Both teams added new talent in the off-season and the Steelers did not keep pace. I suspect it’ll be a much closer battle this time. However, the Steelers still have the edge.

Until I see signs that Roethlisberger can’t do it anymore, his team has the advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised if the division title came down to the last week of the season, but so long as their core players stay healthy, which is big if, the Steelers will come out ahead.

Jack’s Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers


AFC South

This division, more than any other division in the AFC, is up for grabs, albeit for all the wrong reasons. It’s a division that got too used to Peyton Manning dominating it for over a decade with the Colts. For a while, it seemed like Andrew Luck would continue that tradition. Then, he started taking too many hits. Now, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury that has kept him out of the Colts’ entire offseason program.

With each year that passes, Luck seems to get unluckier. Conversely, the Titans and Texans seem to get better. That continued this year with the Texans drafting Deshaun Watson, the hero of the NCAA Championship game earlier this year. The Titans also loaded up on defensive players to supplement their evolving offense, which has steadily grown under the hand of Marcus Mariota.

Last year, the Texans managed to win their division with a guy named Tom Savage at quarterback and with J. J. Watt, arguably the best defensive player in football, on injured reserve. Watt is back this year, but so is Mariota. These two teams will likely be in a dogfight until the end of the season, with the Colts and Jaguars struggling for relevancy.

In the end, though, even if the Texans decide to play Watson, I can’t see their defense bailing them out this time. The division is changing and I think until the Texans fix their quarterback situation, they won’t be able to ascend much higher.

Jack’s Pick: Tennessee Titans 


AFC West

This is another division in flux. It was dominated for several years by Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Then, Manning retired and the division became a free-for-all. One week, the Broncos were the best team. The next, it was the Raiders. Then, it was the Chiefs. You would never even expect that the Chargers still have a Pro Bowl quarterback in Phillip Rivers under center.

Last year, it seemed as though the Raiders were emerging as the dominate team in that division. Derek Carr led his team to the best record in the AFC for a while. Then, he got hurt and was out for the season. That injury effectively derailed the Raiders’ chances at overcoming the established power of the Steelers and Patriots.

Now, Carr is healthy, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll be the same player he was last year. At the same time, the Chiefs are a team on the rise. Andy Reid has what might be one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. His team isn’t flashy, but they get the job done. In a division without a dominate force like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, that’s all you need.

I know the Raiders are a popular pick to keep on rising. I know they have more talent at the skill position. However, I’m not yet convinced that they’ve taken the necessary steps to compete on a larger stage. I’ve also never been convinced that the Broncos can win another playoff game with Trevor Siemian as their quarterback.

Jack’s Pick: Kansas City Chief


NFC East

This is definitely my favorite division in all of football and not just because I live in between the passionate fan-bases of the Redskins, Eagles, and Giants. Every year, this division seems to attract some level of upheaval. Many times, it involves the Dallas Cowboys. If it were a soap opera, it would be the biggest show that didn’t feature dragons, incest, and a naked Emilia Clark.

Last year, the Dallas Cowboys dominated the division, effectively coasting their way to a division title. They’re favored, by many, to do it again. However, history is not on their side. No team has won back-to-back division titles in the NFC East in over a decade. On top of that, the Cowboys have a nasty tradition of regressing after a year of dominance.

It’s worth noting that the one team they couldn’t seem to beat, the New York Giants, is in their division. It’s also worth noting that the Giants made the playoffs last year under a first-year head coach and with Odell Beckham Jr. being a distraction, no less. Like it or not, Eli Manning has two Super Bowl rings and the Cowboys have only two playoff wins in this millennium.

The Cowboys have a rough schedule ahead of them. The Eagles and Redskins are also teams that are growing, in terms of talent and experience. With so much drama in Dallas, along with the ongoing Ezekiel Elliott situation, it’s hard to see how they would manage a tougher schedule. They may still make the playoffs, but their lack of experience keeps me from giving them much confidence.

Jack’s Pick: New York Giants


NFC North

This is another division that has been dominated/plagued by one team and one all-time-great player. The Green Bay Packers are that team and Aaron Rogers is that player. Tom Brady may have more Super Bowl rings, but Rogers has more skill with a supporting cast that isn’t nearly as loaded as New England. He got into a major rut last season, but still managed to get hot and take the Packers deep into the playoffs.

Rogers and the Packers have been the bane of every other team in this division and that was before Adrian Peterson left Minnesota. At the moment, the only team that has even close to the amount of talent needed to threaten the Packers are the Detroit Lions. They have a solid quarterback in Mathew Stafford and solid skill players, but they’ve yet to show they can regularly compete against the Packers.

With the Bears rebuilding and the Vikings unable to go very far with Sam Bradford as their quarterback, there isn’t much of a threat to the Packers’ dominance this year. That said, Rogers’ propensity to get into ruts while his team struggles around him has become more common in recent years. If that keeps happening, then sooner or later, it’s going to catch up with them.

I’m not saying that’ll happen this year. I’m also not saying it’s impossible for a team like the Lions or the Vikings to shock the Packers and end their reign. At the moment, though, it’s unlikely.

Jack’s Pick: Green Bay Packers


NFC South

This division confounds me more than any other division. It’s not because it’s full of bad teams. It’s quite the opposite. Every team in this division has the potential to be a champion. I can easily see every one of these teams getting hot and making a deep playoff run.

The Saints have a Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees. The Panthers have an all-pro in Cam Newton. The Bucs have a rising star in Jameis Winston. It’s almost shocking to remember that the Falcons made it to the Super Bowl last year and were just a quarter away from winning it. This division may very well be the strongest division in football.

While the Falcons have proven they can make it to the Super Bowl, they lost their offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, in the offseason. They also lost key contributors on their defense while their rivals in Carolina and Tampa Bay improved. Given the Falcons’ history with struggling to sustain their success, I think there are many forces working against them.

Picking a winner here means picking a team that has just one more player who can make one more play than the other guys. I don’t think the Saints, with their aging roster, have that player. However, I do think the Panthers got that player this spring when they drafted Christian McCaffrey. While I still think the race will be close, I think Cam Newton being healthy and having a potent new offensive weapon will be the deciding factor.

Jack’s Pick: Carolina Panthers


NFC West

Every division has good players. Every division has at least one good team that can compete with the best. Every now and then, though, one particular division seems to decline for a wide variety of reasons. Since the Seahawks lost Super Bowl XLIX, the division has hit more than a few rocks.

The Seahawks are still the most complete team. Russell Wilson is still the best quarterback in that division by a wide margin, but the Seahawks have found ways to struggle over the past few years. Their defense has not been able to dominate like it did when it guided the team to back-to-back Super Bowls. It also no longer has dominating players at the skill positions like Marshawn Lynch.

At the same time, the rest of the division is trying to reorganize itself. The L.A. Rams have a new head coach in Sean McVay, who has a young quarterback in Jared Goff to develop. The San Francisco 49ers also have a new coach in Kyle Shanahan, who was part of the Falcon’s Super Bowl run. Both teams seemed to bottom out last year and are ready to ascend, just as the Seahawks’ dominance is waning.

Arizona might still be the biggest threat to the Seahawks, but Carson Palmer’s age and a lack of skill players outside of Larry Fitzgerald makes me skeptical that they can keep pace. Arizona is one of those teams that only ever seems to do well when they get hot. Unless that happens and other teams improve, the edge is still with Seattle.

Jack’s Pick: Seattle Seahawks


Super Bowl LII Pick

At the beginning of every NFL season, it’s next to impossible to pick who will end up in the Super Bowl. For every hot pick that lands, there are a hundred more that fail miserably. It’s part of what makes football great. It is possible for a seemingly unbeatable team to get beaten, as the 2007 Patriots found out. It’s also possible for a team to go from 4 and 12 to the Super Bowl, as the 1999 St. Louis Rams found out.

There’s a non-zero chance that both could happen this year. There’s also a chance that everything goes exactly as the experts predict. The fact that both chances are equally unlikely is what gives football so much excitement.

It’s with that little prelude that I predict the following Super Bowl LII results

Carolina Panthers Defeat The Pittsburgh Steelers By A Score Of 31-27

I know the Patriots are the popular pick and the Cowboys have a lot of momentum, but I think Cam Newton rebounds this year, having played most of last year hurt. I also think Christian McCaffrey is the X-factor that will push the Panthers past the competition.

The Steelers have a lot of firepower, especially in wake of the injuries and retirements suffered by the Patriots. However, Roethlisberger’s age and injury history is just too much to ignore. I think they can still make a run, but the Panthers have just a few more play-makers that’ll put them over the top.

That’s my pick. They may be dead wrong, but I look forward to finding out as the 2017 NFL season begins.

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How To Know When A Crisis Is (NOT) A Crisis

Anyone who watches the news for more than 15 minutes will probably hear about some dire new crisis that’s going to utterly destroy society, their way of life, or the entire world.

One day, it’s some terrifying new disease. The other, it’s some environmental catastrophe. Every now and then, you’ll even get someone saying we’re creating the robots that will eventually kill us all. That, or we’re just seeing a trailer for a new “Terminator” movie. These days, it’s kind of hard to tell the difference.

There are so many unfolding catastrophes in this world. When you look at history, recent and ancient alike, and see how close we’ve come to destroying ourselves, it feels like a goddamn miracle that we’re still in one piece. Thanks to the news, the internet, and Roland Emmerich movies, it feels like any day could be the day where aliens, asteroids, and earthquakes decide humanity’s run is over.

However, that day hasn’t come. Aliens, diseases, and global warming hasn’t killed us yet. Can we at least stop for a moment to appreciate that? Whether it’s the news media, disaster movies, or boredom, most people don’t realize just how much progress we’ve made as a species. We realize even less that the driving force behind that progress is something that will also solve future problems.

It’s kind of our not-so-dirty secret-that-shouldn’t-be-a-secret. We’re all so used to hearing about a new crisis that we should worry about, but we rarely hear about the solutions. We hear even less about the problems that humanity actually solved because who wants to hear about those? It’s not like human triumph sells or anything.

I could go on for multiple post about how fear is a lucrative industry, from slasher movies to stories about bear attacks. I’d rather give people a sense of hope and leave the depressing nihilism to street preachers, cable news, and grunge rock. Instead, I want to focus on the secret weapon that humanity has to solve a major crisis.

For a point of reference, let me list a few major problems that once filled humanity with an existential dread, only to be solved to the widespread cheers of no one.

Remember the dire threat we faced when a hole in the ozone layer formed in the arctic? Well, we’ve largely solved that problem.

Remember the dire threat we faced with acid rain? We solved that too.

Remember when AIDS, SARS, and bird flu were deemed the plague that would wipe out humanity? Well, thanks to modern medicine, we’ve either solved it or contained it.

Remember how for most of human history, we were always just one bad harvest away from a horrific famine? Well, most people don’t remember that, but we solved that problem anyway.

Then, there are the ongoing problems that we haven’t solved, but are making considerable progress. Every now and then, we’ll be reminded that it’s still a problem, but we’ll rarely acknowledge the progress. Make no mistake, though. That progress is there.

Issues like climate change are still a problem. Thanks to the growth of green energy and improvements in efficiency, we’re making slow, yet steady progress.

Issues like factory farming, over-fishing, and the animal cruelty that goes with it is a problem. We’re dealing with that too through advances in synthetic meats and vertical farming.

Few issues generate as many headlines and/or first world guilt than global poverty. However, thanks to advances in modern economies and an unprecedented decline in war, the number of people living in poverty has decreased significantly.

Again, you probably don’t hear about these stories and it’s not just because fear sells better than hope. A lot of these problems weren’t solved overnight with a single, brilliant idea. That may work in reruns of “House” and “Grey’s Anatomy,” but that’s not how real progress works.

Real progress takes time. It happens gradually. It’s like a shoulder massage that turns into an orgy at the Playboy Mansion. It doesn’t happen all at once. We don’t entirely understand how we get there. We just stop thinking about it and enjoy the fruits of that progress.

That’s entirely understandable. When you find yourself in a room with Channing Tatum, High Jackman, and a half-dozen naked bikini models, you tend not to care how you got there. You just smile, take your clothes off, and start enjoying yourself.

Now, I’m all for getting naked and enjoying the moment as much as the next guy. Put me in a room where dancing, nudity, and cold beer are all celebrated and I’ll be the first to overlook whatever progress led me there. However, I think it’s worth taking a moment to understand when a crisis is truly dire.

I don’t deny for a second that when the problems I mentioned above were first explored, they seemed pretty damn daunting. Anyone who knows the history of famines, disease, or environmental catastrophes would’ve spent an hour or so in the fetal position listening to old Evanescence songs.

Then, once the dread wears off and the music gets old, those same people would’ve gotten up, rolled up their sleeves, and gotten to work. That’s because, as fearful as we can be, we generally like living in a world that’s comfortable enough for life, love, and bacon-flavored lube.  We’re very motivated to work towards that kind of world and not just because we’re hungry, horny, or lonely.

So how do we do it? How does humanity solve these problems or even begin to solve them? How the hell is it that we’ve made as much progress as we have, especially over the last century? Moreover, how can we know whether humanity will solve all the other overwhelming problems we’re facing now?

These questions are all actually very easy to answer. In fact, I’ve even come up with a simple checklist that anyone can use to figure out whether a problem is solvable. When looking at a problem from afar, ask yourself the following three questions.

  1. Can the problem be solved with a new tool or an improvement to an existing tool?

  2. Would the tool that solves the problem violate the known laws of physics?

  3. Is there a non-zero incentive to make that tool?

If the answer to all three of these questions is yes, or even kind of, then go ahead and breathe a sigh of relief. That crisis, whatever it may be, will be solved in some form or another. It won’t happen overnight. It won’t happen in a single eureka moment. It’ll still happen though and for a very good reason.

Say what you will about the flaws in humanity. I certainly do on this blog, from the deficiencies in our bodies to our outdated marriage practices. However, there is one skill that humanity is objectively good at, so much so that it has made us the dominant species on this planet by an obscene margin.

We humans make awesome tools. We know how to build amazing things. Say what you will about a beaver dam, a spider web, or an ant colony. They don’t hold a candle to the Hoover Dam or a solar powered vibrator.

A lot of the seemingly unsolvable problems of the past were, for the most part, solved by tool. We developed cleaner, more efficient cars. We developed more efficient farming techniques. We developed more effective medicines.

That effort hasn’t stopped either. We’re still making newer and better tools every day. Tools like CRISPR could potentially cure hundreds of diseases. There may very well come a day where someone dying of genetic diseases will be as rare as someone dying of small pox.

Other tools, such as better batteries, more efficient light bulbs, and advances in nuclear power, will cut down on pollution and generate cleaner energy. Given the incentives to breathe clean air, as well as the massive profits to be made, we can expect those tools to put a major dent in the various environmental disasters that seem to crop up every single day.

Even problems on a smaller scale, such as head injuries in professional football, could be solved with better tools. The human brain, and the body as a whole, isn’t a rough-cut diamond that can never be repaired once flawed. It’s a hunk of malleable biomatter. Fixing it requires tools and make no mistake. Smart, well-paid people are working on it.

Thankfully, making tools is one of mankind’s greatest skills. To say a problem is insurmountable is like saying a sixth round draft pick from Michigan could never win five Super Bowls and marry a supermodel. Even if you hate Tom Brady’s guts, he is living proof that insurmountable obstacles are a relative, if not outright flawed concept.

Now, I don’t mean to say that humans will overcome everything. As soon as I post this article, a gamma ray burst from across the galaxy, a super volcano could erupt in Yellowstone, or an asteroid the size of Montana could crash into the planet, killing us all. These are major problems that we probably can’t solve, even with our awesome tools.

However, with all the doom-saying in the world and a new crisis emerging at least once a week, let’s not let humanity’s strength’s overshadow its flaws. Let’s not cower in fear when we don’t have to.

If a problem can be solved by a tool, then we humans are uniquely equipped to solve it. If there’s time, motivation, and resources to work with, we’ll solve it eventually. It may take a while and involve many setbacks, but we’ll eventually succeed. Lions maul zebras. Terminators terminate their targets. Humans build awesome tools to solve big problems. That’s something to be proud of.

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On Football, CTE, And Its (Not So) Bleak Future

When you love something a lot, you’ll make any excuse possible to keep loving it, no matter how unhealthy it may be. Whether it’s a toxic relationship or skydiving naked over the arctic, our desire to love and preserve such love knows no bounds. It’s a testament to the power of excuses and our capacity for excuse banking.

We’ve all loved something that may or may not be unhealthy, if not downright toxic, at some point in our lives. We may know in the back of our heads that it’s unhealthy. We may even admit it to someone. That still doesn’t stop us from loving it. We’ll still try to find a way to make that love work. Like an alcoholic or a heavy smoker in denial, we don’t want to admit its a problem. In the long run, it often comes back to hurt us.

I say all this because in recent years, there are a growing number of voices calling American football the new tobacco. Apparently, getting hit in the head by a bunch of 200-pound athletes is just as dangerous as inhaling smoke. In the same way smoking contributes to dreaded diseases like lung cancer, football contributes to a new dreaded disease called chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE.

CTE has become the most dreaded three-letter acronym to football players since ACL. It is a new kind of disease, one that ravages the brain of former athletes. It causes all sorts of horrors such as headaches, memory loss, erratic behavior, dementia, tremors, vertigo, and suicidal tendencies. These are symptoms that can’t get more terrifying without involving explosive diarrhea.

It has already rocked the sport, so much so that it inspired a crappy Will Smith movie called “Concussion.” Sure, it tanked, but it helped raise awareness to the issue for fans and players alike. In wake of the deaths of several high-profile football players, including Hall of Famers like Ken Stabler and Junior Seau, it’s taken on a tragic element that cannot be ignored.

Then, just this past week, a study by the Journal of the American Medical Association published a report that probably has everyone at NFL offices banging their heads against the wall, if only to provide a sense of irony. Of the 111 brains of former football players they studied, 110 showed signs of CTE. In terms of sheer math, you literally can’t get a correlation that more precise without being paid for by oil companies.

This has led many to speculate that football’s days are numbered. Never mind the fact that it’s still, by a wide margin, the most popular sport in America. Never mind the fact that it generates billions in revenue and has some of the most passionate fans of any sport. An issue like this is just too damaging. A disease as awful as CTE is bound to drive people away from this sport, right?

Okay, I’m going to stop with the dire doom-saying rhetoric and call a timeout on the whole conversation. I do so while freely admitting, and admitting proudly, that I love NFL football and football in general. It is my favorite sport. I build my entire Sundays around watching NFL games.

I acknowledge that it’s a violent sport, one that leads to major injuries for various players. I make no excuses in my love for that kind of gladiator-style violence. I’m as human as anyone else reading this blog. Violent sports appeal to the primal parts of our brains. Like admitting you love an extra orgasm every now and then, there’s nothing wrong with admitting you love contact sports.

Does that make fans and team owners bad people for promoting a sport that leads to such a terrible health ailment like CTE? The answer is no. It doesn’t, not unless you’re willing to say car companies and car buyers are terrible people for promoting a product that killed over 32,000 people in the United States alone in 2015.

However, football fans and the NFL can take comfort in the knowledge that car companies have already created a model for addressing issues like CTE. There was no getting around it, even during the days of Henry Ford. Cars could be very dangerous to those who drove them and drove them poorly. Early cars were basically steel death traps.

Since killing customers is never a good business practice, car companies invested heavily in new safety features. They developed now-standard features such as air bags, seat-belts, and even on-board computers that stop your car for you. Cars today are safer than they’ve ever been before.

So how does this help football? A car is different from a human brain by orders of magnitude. The sheer complexity of the human brain ensures that a helmet or an airbag just isn’t going to cut it in terms of protection. We barely understand how the damn thing works. How can we hope to protect it?

Well, keep in mind that people once said the same thing about mapping the human genome. The human brain isn’t some magical object that runs on wizard spells and unicorn farts. It’s a hunk of biomatter no bigger than a football, ironically enough. It operates on the basic rules of chemistry and biology. It’s not some rough-cut diamond wherein one single flaw means it can never be fixed.

The brain can and does heal itself. It has to in a chaotic world that most people struggle to process. Sure, the damage endured by football players is greater than most. You can say that about anyone who spends four hours out of the week putting a target on their head and inviting others to hit it. What you can’t say, however, is that the problem of damaged brains in contact sports is insurmountable.

We’re not talking about teaching quantum physics to a hamster, here. We’re talking about a physical problem with the human body. As flawed as the human body may be, it’s also fairly malleable. The brain is no exception.

Back in 2013, a kid in North Carolina had half his brain cut out to alleviate his debilitating seizures. There’s no amount of head trauma any football player could endure that’s akin to having half a brain cut out. However, the kid recovered and his brain was able to effectively rewire itself so he could live a fairly normal life. That’s because of a little thing called neuroplasticity.

That’s just a fancy technical way of saying the brain can rewire and repair itself. Given how humans adapted in an environment full of giant predators and coconuts falling from trees, we kind of need our brains to do that sort of thing. The only issue is we still don’t understand it. However, we do understand the horrific damage done by diseases like CTE.

Therein lies the flaw in debate surrounding the future of football. It deals with something with which we don’t have a clear understanding. Even those who participated in the CTE study clearly admitted that it had its flaws. One of the researchers said:

“Families don’t donate brains of their loved ones unless they’re concerned about the person. So all the players in this study, on some level, were symptomatic. That leaves you with a very skewed population.”

That’s entirely understandable and a common problem within the realm of science. However, that will do little to alleviate the fear and dread among football players and football fans. We’re already seeing some players retire early due to concerns about concussions. Who can blame them, though? It’s a scary thought, the idea that playing a sport you love will destroy your brain.

However, fear often obscures the lens of reality. Add doom-saying, such as those who think a multi-billion dollar industry like the NFL is going to die, and you can expect reality to disappear from the conversation. The truth, in a sense, is not something you’ll find in a Will Smith movie. It also gives football fans and football players reason to hope.

Since the problem of CTE is a physical health problem, then that means there is a medical solution. Sure, there’s a lot we don’t understand about the human brain or healing it, but you could’ve made that same argument back in the 80s when AIDS was first discovered. For a while, that was a true death sentence. Now, we have treatments that make the disease manageable.

Keep in mind, though, that diseases like AIDS didn’t have a multi-billion dollar industry like the NFL with huge incentives to develop such treatments. When there’s a problem to be solved and there’s a multi-billion dollar industry with an incentive to solve it, you can probably assume said industry will invest billions in treating that problem.

That means if you’re a brain researcher and you develop a treatment for concussions, you can expect a lot of money from the NFL and various sports organizations to support you. Hell, Jerry Jones from the Dallas Cowboys will probably fly you to a resort and have the Dallas Cheerleaders give you unlimited massages.

CTE is a major issue, but it’s a solvable issue. On top of preventative measures like better helmets, medical science can help. That same science is what cured Small Pox, Polio, and is on the verge of eliminating many diseases with tools like CRISPR. It’s more than up to the challenge to tackle something like CTE.

Now that awareness of the disease is growing, you can expect the NFL and medical science to start pressuring it. That’s why football is going to be okay. This isn’t like smoking. This isn’t like human sacrifice. This is a problem that can only be solved with better tools. Say what you will about the flaws in humanity. We’re still exceptionally good at certain things and making tools is one of them.

For the players playing now, it’s definitely scary. However, that’s only because there’s still plenty we don’t know. It’s not an insurmountable challenge though. It is possible to defy the odds. If anyone knows that better than most, it’s NFL players. Just ask the 2007 New York Giants.

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