Last weekend, the NFL held its annual draft. If you’re a serious football fan, you might not understand why it was such a big deal. No actual football was played. The only thing the draft accomplishes is allowing each team to select from a limited pool of college football players. They do so in a specific order determined by a series of rules based on their record from the previous season. The goal is to facilitate the influx of new, youthful talent into the league.
In terms of actual operation, it’s mostly bureaucratic. But over the years, the NFL has turned it into an elaborate spectacle that unfolds over the course of three days. I’ve tried explaining to non-football fans why so many people find it so compelling. Every attempt has resulted in strange looks and confused expressions.
On some levels, I get it. It is weird that fans tune into the NFL draft and attend the ceremony in droves. But as a fan, I also understand why it’s worth watching. There’s a reason it garnered solid TV ratings, drawing numbers usually reserved for big network events.
The NFL draft is basically a pre-packaged, well-organized presentation of hope to every fan of every team in the league. It teases and tantalizes us with the idea that this influx of young, accomplished college players will give our favorite team a chance to contend in the upcoming season. In a league where teams go from worst to first and first to worst every year, that hope is not without substance. A good draft can turn an entire franchise around. A great draft can create a full-fledged dynasty.
That’s why, in the days and weeks following the NFL draft, it’s common for every fanbase to claim their team “won” the draft. I bet if you polled fans of every franchise (with the possible exception of Jets and Browns fans), they would claim this latest draft made them contenders. They may not think their team is ready for a Super Bowl run, but they’ll say with conviction their team now has a shot at the playoffs.
I get that sentiment. I’ve felt it many times before after every draft. That’s why I’m posting this. Because if following NFL football for much of my life has taught me anything, it’s this.
Nobody knows which team won an NFL Draft until at LEAST three years after it happens.
This is not an opinion. This is basic observation. Now, I get there are some exceptions/anomalies. Every now and then, one player from one draft class makes an immediate difference. Jayden Daniels was that player from the 2024 NFL Draft. But that’s very rare. And expecting that to happen to your team (or any team for that matter) is just not reasonable.
In this current era of NFL football, it takes time for players to develop at the professional level. The gap between college football in the NFL is not trivial. For years, I’ve seen players dominate college football games on Saturday. And just a few years later, those same players struggle to make the active roster on an NFL team. For every draft class, only a small fraction of the players selected turn into capable starters. And sometimes, they do so on a team other than the one that drafted them. Look no further than quarterback Sam Darnold, who was drafted by the New York Jets, but went onto win a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks.
Some players need a lot more than three years to become capable. Some even take a break from football altogether before coming back. Most don’t go far, but a select few can become Super Bowl MVP. That’s just the chaotic nature of NFL football and the draft.
You just don’t know how good a player is going to be when they’re drafted. You don’t know if they’re going to fit in with the team that drafts them. You don’t even know if this player has the drive, mentality, and work ethic to become a quality NFL player. Some have those traits and go onto become a Hall of Famer. Others get drafted high but wash out and end up being a goat farmer.
That’s the never-ending mystery of the NFL Draft. That’s also what fuels the intrigue. You just don’t know. And you can’t know until these players take the field. For this past NFL Draft, that’s not happening for another four months. Until then, I’ll only recommend that fans of every team cling to whatever hope they can for the upcoming season. We don’t know how much of that hope is false because we can’t know how this latest draft will play out.
That’s just the magic of this game. It’s impossible to predict, but it always gives us a spectacle worth watching.
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